1. Single source/rumor
2. Correlation/causation
3. Backwards looking---linear extending to future
4. "This time is different"
5. Partial evidence (availability overweight)
5.1 Is three a small number? Is 1mil a large number? It depends on what it refers to.
6. Incentive bias
6.1 Am I predicting what I expect or I want? Are they predicting what they expect/bias to/want to happen?
7. Qualitative vs quantitative
Antidose:
1. Who said, as verified independently, what happened when and where for what reason?
2. How does it look historically? Proportionally? Money weighted wise?
3. Which part/terminology eludes me?
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