Monday, September 28, 2009

Good critical thinking example by Dan Duncan

1. Check the facts
2. No TA analysis without thorough historical view AND clear fundamental explanation

Full text:

Full text:
“Indeed, rather than investigating these common aphorisms, if you trade on them at face value, you will be disappointed. Unless you thoroughly data verify and prove/disprove ANY AND ALL Wall Street myths, rules of thumb, or standard trading phrases, you are going to a) develop a false belief system and 2) that will eventually lose you lots of money.”

Barry, you’re just as guilty when you throw out the standard technical analysis B.S. with no underpinnings. Hell, just last week you were noting the significance of the dreaded “outside down day”…Oh no!

Taking the Dreaded Outside Down day as an example (one of many—like Head shoulders, MA crossovers and on and on.)–and your time-tested advice to “data verify”…

Just what exactly is the significance of the Outside Down Day? [And please, no garbage narratives...just the facts.]

1. How often are outside days (up or down) followed up by a move in the same direction? Could you give us a little feedback on this…you are a part of Fusion IQ, after all, so it couldn’t be too difficult.

2. Would the results of #1 be affected by the enactment of a reasonable stop-loss plan? [It is so damn annoying when people make market calls and then take credit for a particular call even the trade would have been stopped out by a normal enforcement of a stop loss protocol.]

3. Any ideas as to how long the affects of the Outside day will last on a particular market movement..ie should the trader stay in trade for 1 day or should the occurrence of an outside day mark the beginning of a long term trade?

4. If you don’t know the answer to #1 (let alone 2-4), why on earth are you mentioning the occurrence of an outside day as if it has any significance whatsoever? If you do know the answer, wouldn’t your readers find it interesting?

5. Finally, and most importantly: Are you impressed by my willingness and desire to “thoroughly data verify and prove/disprove ANY AND ALL Wall Street myths, rules of thumb, or standard trading phrases”?

in reference to: The Myth of Sideline Cash | The Big Picture (view on Google Sidewiki)

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