DL

DL Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 2:36 pm

If we get another panic sell-off in the stock market, the dollar should rally. But after that, USD is toast.

DL Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 3:39 pm

When Mannwich finally liquidates all his shorts, the market’s going to drop 20% in a week.

DL Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 8:48 pm

Leftback @ 8:08

“…if you had a complex play on - something like a bet that the SPX would be between 600 and 700, for example and then the market rallied far out of that range..”

I don’t think one could do this with options… potential for profit using a “spread” or a “butterfly” only exists for a fairly narrow trading range.

………..

However, if someone kept shorting naked calls all the way up, he’d be forced to buy them back. If a lot of people were doing that, it would increase call option premiums… that in turn might entice arbitrageurs to come in and simultaneously buy the underlying stock and short the calls against them.

In any case, I don’t really think this is driving the rally.

karen

karen Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 3:25 pm

thanks, andy, could not agree more… it’s more fun betting with you than against you, btw.

cjcpa

cjcpa Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 3:22 pm

Q: Is it courageous or silly to get short here?

A: we’ll know in six months for sure….

Andy Tabbo

Andy Tabbo Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

Quick Note as I leave town for a few days. Last Sunday night I wrote about 870 - 906 being an important zone of resistance and that we should see that level by end of this week/early next week. Well, we’re almost there (high print is 869.17 so far). Longs should think hard about shedding some length very soon. To be honest, I’m not sure what the pattern is from the 666 lows–It’s a little confusing to me. But, what I can state is that the last few weeks are beginning to resemble a “rising wedge” formation, which is potentially very bearish. One thing is for certain, pay attention to that uptrend line. If it gets violated at all, then exit the market post-haste. When rising wedges get broken to the downside, they have a tendency of producing VIOLENT moves lower.

I can’t recommend massive short positions just yet, because I’d rather see some “peaking” action first…either an identifiable little 5 wave move down on intraday charts, or a break of that uptrend line.

MRegan

MRegan Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 3:08 pm

Is QID coming into buy territory?

sentiment

Mannwich Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 4:03 pm

Raised more cash into the close as well to load up more shorts if this nonsense continues. Liquidated some long positions that I wanted out of. Now mostly short by quite a bit and feeling like crap about, so it must be good. Now off for my first road bike ride of the season! 73 and gorgeous here in the hinterlands…..

Mannwich Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 5:57 pm

Bingo. GOOG = buy the rumor, sell the news. This next leg down is going to be even more entertaining to watch the pundits look like fools AGAIN.

Mannwich Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 6:56 pm

@Mike in Nola: I would argue that this confidence game isn’t designed to replace jobs. It’s designed to pump up profits for the lucky insiders who are in the know so they can be made whole while they kick the can down the road. And then we’ll hear how we’re right on the cusp of turning the corner time and time again and “things aren’t really that bad” in comparison to other times (which is somewhat true) but tell that to the unemployed, levered up, and with no prospects on the horizon outside of a job at MCD. Collateral damage.

Mannwich Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 8:20 pm

On another note, this would obviously be bad for the O administration if there’s anything to this…..is there anyone in positions of power with clean hands? I think not. I honestly think there would be endless perp walks if they truly started peeling the onion. That’s why it’s not going to happen.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123992516941227309.html#mod=djemalertNEWS

sentiment

Mannwich Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

Wow, look at the steady march upwards today. It seems the all-clear has been given to Joe/Jane Retail to either get back in or stay in because all is well again. Slow and steady over the past hour or so. Final hour should be interesting? Panic buying, anyone?

Mannwich Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 3:23 pm

Yes, it is. I’m speechless but will raise cash and patiently wait out this charade. I’d be far less irritated by this if things WERE actually improving, but I just don’t see it. This is pump & dump 101, with a major assist from the feds. Question is - when does the pump cease and the dump begin?

DL Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 3:39 pm

When Mannwich finally liquidates all his shorts, the market’s going to drop 20% in a week.

Mannwich Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 3:43 pm

@DL: Not liquidating. Hanging in there like Steve Barry. We are not out of the woods yet.

Mannwich Says:
April 16th, 2009 at 3:50 pm

Picked up some SDS.